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The US Federal Reserve has decided to maintain key interest rates at 4.5% amid high uncertainty, with projections indicating two potential rate cuts later this year. Inflation remains stubbornly high, influenced by external factors such as tariff policies, prompting a cautious approach to monetary easing. Additionally, the reduction of government bonds will slow to a maximum of USD 5 billion per month due to tensions in the money market.
Speculation about a potential merger between insurers Baloise and Helvetia has resurfaced, driven by major shareholder Cevian's influence. While Baloise shares have underperformed compared to Helvetia, analysts consider the merger scenario unlikely despite its intriguing nature. In financial markets, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, while oil prices fell due to rising US reserves. The SMI index struggled near the 13,000-point mark as investors awaited key interest rate announcements from both the Fed and the Swiss National Bank.
The Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rates amid ongoing uncertainty over trade policies and a recent decline in consumer morale. With core PCE inflation showing a slight decrease and growth projections potentially facing downward revisions, the Fed's cautious approach reflects the turbulent economic environment. Market reactions will hinge on any changes to growth and inflation forecasts during the upcoming meeting.
Wells Fargo has successfully terminated another consent order from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, related to its Home Lending practices, marking the 11th closure of regulatory orders since 2019. The bank is now down to potentially three remaining consent orders, including those from the Federal Reserve, which imposed a $1.9 trillion asset cap following a customer account scandal. CEO Charlie Scharf expressed confidence in resolving the remaining issues, while total penalties from regulatory actions have exceeded $11.14 billion.
Bitcoin's recovery hinges on the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision, with expectations that an end to quantitative tightening (QT) could bolster market liquidity. Analysts suggest that a pause in QT may signal a new monetary regime, while concerns about stagflation could temper potential gains for Bitcoin. Investment banks, including Bank of America, predict the Fed will pause QT amid economic uncertainties, potentially impacting the yield on U.S. Treasury notes and demand for riskier assets.
Ethereum's price struggles to breach the USD 1,900 mark amid focus on US monetary policy and Jerome Powell's upcoming statements. Investors anticipate a pause in interest rate changes, while economic uncertainties, including tariff disputes, may continue to impact the market.The psychological barrier of USD 2,000 is crucial for reversing the recent downturn, with potential risks of a decline to USD 1,600. Traders can explore options with knock-out certificates based on their market outlook.
Bitcoin's market is looking to the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision for potential support, particularly regarding the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Analysts suggest that a pause in QT could signal a new monetary regime, positively impacting liquidity and riskier assets. However, concerns about stagflation may temper market reactions, as the Fed's economic projections could indicate lower growth and higher inflation risks.
Gold prices are on a record run as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, with a key interest rate decision expected soon. The ongoing tariff conflict, particularly punitive tariffs on EU imports, is likely to keep investors on edge, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming rhetoric will be closely watched. Technically, the $3,000 mark remains crucial, with potential for continued rally despite risks of setbacks, especially following the Fed's decision.
Investors have sharply reduced their allocation to US stocks, with a record 40% drop in March, as described by Bank of America strategists as a "bull crash." This shift comes amid a 10% decline in the S&P 500, with cash allocations rising, reflecting heightened concerns over a potential global recession triggered by trade tensions. Despite a recent uptick in stock prices, market sentiment remains cautious, with many investors awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision for further direction.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range amid mixed economic signals and a cautious outlook influenced by recent protectionist policies. Key indicators, including a drop in consumer confidence and mixed inflation data, complicate the Fed's decision-making.Market reactions will hinge on the Fed's tone and the release of the "dot plot," which outlines members' future rate expectations. Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference will be crucial for insights on inflation, employment, and potential rate cuts, with a significant probability of cuts anticipated by June.
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